November 21, 2014 – Although I didn’t give enough weight to the overall drag on shareholder value that the two reversed pentacle court cards implied, this has been an accurate assessment with one exception. It didn’t give a hint to the FDA partial clinical hold though the effect was not as severe as I would have thought thereby confirming that investor sentiment has made a turn toward the positive here. I’ll remain patient as I’m underwater by only $0.12 and anticipated a lifting of the partial hold and good OS data later in December.
Posted to the Scrying Biotech website on August 31st, my first purchase of $13,994 was made on September 4th for $8.88 a share. Over the next 3 days, the stock rose over 32%. I sold shares each day for a total profit of $4,235. Here was my strategy taken directly from the last paragraph of the “I’m In” page.
“I’m looking for a 30% climb and will be out upon reaching that target. I’m mindful, however, that publication of positive Phase I results in a prestigious scientific review such as the New England Journal of Medicine, could see the stock double in value over night. Nonetheless, I’ll take profits as they present themselves.”
That’s a good and auspicious start. Let’s hope we do as well moving forward. It should be noted that I took out a second position in ACTCD with the profits only and will hold through November 6th or a 30% gain – whichever comes first. This is not however part of the Scrying Record. Those trades are found only under the “I’m In” tab.
In 2013, after less than six months in biotechnology investing, I began applying thaumaturgical analysis in addition to all of the traditional and sundry due diligence techniques. Here’s a graphical representation of how this created separation from the standard indices in 2013.
In 2014, I ignored my previous success, in part, because almost every reading I did on a stock turned up as negative as the overall sector performance played out to be. Additionally, I was determined to be a better analyst, better writer and better researcher. The following graphic demonstrates how losing my way cost me money. Note too, however, that once I shifted my thought process back to what works and left Seeking Alpha, my performance steeply ascends upward. These graphics are taken from my brokerage account analytical tools. Here’s my year to date performance on a cost basis.
Overall, I’m still up 48.81% on the year even with several notable setbacks.
At this time, I’m back to a thaumaturgical first approach and my brokerage account is benefiting from that choice.
If you were here on August 31st, you knew not to hold onto Amarin shares any longer. Simply click on the “Free Content” tab and then on Amarin (AMRN) and you’ll clearly see an inauspicious omen in the investor sector of the “Present” container. Here’s a look at the 3-Month Chart.
You’ll note that the 31.5% run-up began with my article in Seeking Alpha published July 21st and ended with this press release dated yesterday, September 12th.
Not only did I predict the ultimate outcome of the SPA rescission appeal, but I gave you a look ahead into Q4 which will feature two distinctly different realities for investors and corporate leadership.
John Thero will continue to decry the injustice of Amarin’s regulatory predicament, but investors will move on with a clear vision of the future. It is for this reason that I purchased 1,480 shares at $1.41 today. And I expect to make a healthy return of 15% or more by November 15th.
Vascepa sales will climb steeply in the fall months ahead giving the company a new vision of a prosperous future. Meanwhile, John Thero will make no small amount of noise on the judicial front which will cause investors to once again feel confident and buy in.
Always be well.
November 21, 2014 – I think it’s safe to say my analysis was amiss here. The stock sunk to a low of $0.79, far below what I’d anticipated. John Thero has been strangely silent regarding the issue of fair treatment by the FDA, foregoing further appeals of the SPA rescission. Prescriptions have steadily risen and there has also been a wealth of good scientific news. The stock has recovered a bit. I’m still %0.10 underwater and it remains to be seen what’s next.
Though I won’t be buying more (don’t have the funds as it’s Christmas after all) I am curious as to what this silence means. I’ll be doing a new reading on Amarin and posting it soon.